Home » Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

The end of the Covid 19 pandemic – at the beginning of 2021, the return to normality seemed close. But even 2021 was anything but ordinary. 2022 is now the third year of the pandemic. But what do the coming months hold in store in terms of security-related developments, apart from Covid-19? A3 M’s travel security analysts warn of possible security risks that could affect travel in the future. 

Looking into the future is like looking into a crystal ball. What is taken for granted today may have feet of clay tomorrow. the Covid-19 Pandemic is a prime example of this. Until the beginning of 2020, we could travel almost the whole world relatively carefree, but suddenly it was over. Entry restrictions, border closures, suspension of air traffic and lockdowns have caused travel plans to burst like soap bubbles in many places. Only since more and more people have been vaccinated and a less dangerous coronavirus variant called Omicron has been circulating has there been hope that things will return to normal in the medium term.

Holidays in the post-Corona period: What will be normal?

But what does normal mean? Will it be “normal” shortly for vacationers to be more or less strict Entry requirements and testing obligations will be subjected? Will entry bans or quarantine periods be imposed in the affected countries in the future if further virus variants or high incidences appear? Or will the development of the corona numbers be viewed more calmly in the future? One does not know.

Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022
Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

Tim Mossholder

In any case, the developments in many places are giving hope that international travel will be made more accessible. In some European countries, entry regulations are likely to be further liberalized shortly. Calls for easing or even a complete abolition of the corona restrictions are becoming louder in more and more countries. Even Australia, which went into self-isolation for almost two years, reopens its borders to tourists from abroad.

The Travel Security Analysts from A3Ma company claim to “develop early warning, information and communication systems for professional and effective crisis management”. The corona pandemic is now an opportunity to think outside the box and look at security-relevant developments apart from Corona to dare. The focus is on demonstrations and unrest, political crises and environmental hazards. A3M believes these travel and security developments could be significant in 2022:

Corona Pandemic: What could happen in 2022

With the increasing availability of vaccines and new Covid drugs, the world is now better equipped to face the challenges ahead than it was a year ago, according to analysts at A3M. According to experts, Covid-19 will become endemic in the foreseeable future. The WHO also assumes that the acute phase of the Pandemic survived by mid-2022 could be if 70 per cent of the world’s population were vaccinated by then. An endemic also means that the people will have to live with the virus in the medium term.

Start of an era of pandemics?

Was the corona pandemic a one-off event that will never come back? Hardly likely. Instead, it reveals a more significant global trend that is already being dubbed the Pandemic Era, A3M believes. According to a study that models the potential future development of pandemics, the probability of another pandemic in the next 25 years is 47 to 57 per cent.

Another study of the National Academy of Sciences in the USA concluded last autumn that a 2 per cent chance of a pandemic consists every year. And that probability keeps increasing. According to experts, the increased occurrence of pandemics is mainly due to artificial living conditions in a globalized world. Are characteristic of its climate change, the intensification of agriculture and animal husbandry, and increasing interventions in nature.

Increasing social tensions in many countries

A3M also focuses on civil unrest, politically motivated violence and crime. They have been increasing worldwide lately. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) study put the protest events at a high point 24 months after the pandemic outbreak. It raised the medium-term risk of unrest and anti-government protests through inequality and unemployment. The virus is changing many things fundamentally. It further aggravates poor, sanctioned, heavily populated or war-torn countries, recently determined by the Federal Agency for Civic Education.

Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022
Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

Andrew Valdivia

But not only there: There are also demonstrations in many places in western countries against the corona restrictions and compulsory vaccination. In Canada, For example, truck drivers have been protesting in the capital Ottawa for a few days. The city has now declared a state of emergency. 2022 could be a turbulent year.

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Terrorism gains momentum during the crisis.

Last year, among other things, the international Withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan the people worldwide. If one follows A3M’s arguments, a long-term government success for the Taliban could also become a model for Islamist groups in Syria, Yemen or West Africa – in countries where Islamist uprisings have increased sharply in recent years. In addition, due to the strengthening of the organization and mobilization of extremist groups in the pandemic, there will be an increased number in the coming year occurrence of terrorist attacks and extremist acts of violence.

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Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

Fred Moon

Terrorist groups have long since begun to exploit the crisis, warned Gilles de Kerchove, who coordinates European plans and strategies in the fight against terrorism at the European Council in May 2020.

According to A3M, there are hardly any interstate wars anymore, more local conflicts at a lower intensity than ever before. They caused more civilian casualties from starvation, food shortages, and displacement. Among the crises that could come into focus in 2022, the company counts conflicts in the Sudan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Israel.

Climate-related weather extremes are increasing.

According to reinsurer Swiss Re, the year 2021 is estimated by the Swiss According to reinsurer Swiss Re, it was one of the most expensive natural catastrophe years of all time, explains A3M. There is no improvement in sight shortly either. The EU Environment Agency EEA recently announced that an increase in the economic damage caused by climate extremes could also be expected in Europe in the future.

Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022
Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

Markus Spiske

Elsewhere in the world, things are even bleaker. Whole regions could become uninhabitable in the next 50 years, leading to the development of new violent conflicts and refugee movements in the long term. The Travel Security Team states: “Even though many of these developments may still be a few decades away, extreme weather conditions caused by climate change are already a growing risk factor.”

Safety: What dangers are threatening when traveling in 2022

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